| Zenobia Baalbaki | Doctoral candidate | United States |
Re: ‘Syria's foreign policy’
The fate of Syria’s political and economic relations with foreign powers and its neighbors will be determined, unfortunately, by the developments and outcomes of the conflicts involving more powerful state actors on the world stage. It would be a fine thing if Syria could suddenly disengage itself from the surrounding conflicts, take a new hands off approach, un-involve itself from the regional power struggles and political posturing currently taking place. Assuming such disengagement would be desirable- as some keep insisting it would, and that Syria is acting criminally even by influencing the balances of power in all her neighboring states- the question first must be posed: is disengagement even possible??
The notion that Syria can disengage itself from the conflicts involving the Palestinians, Israel, Iraqis, Iran, the Lebanese, and even Turkey is simply an impossibility, a denial of reality. The only conflict arena in which Syria can reasonably stay at a distance is in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
And this last sentence should suggest the number one reason for my assertion that the region’s conflicts inherently involve Syria. Geography. Just look at a map. Syria is geographically in the center of the middle-east stage. Not only this, but like Turkey and Lebanon, it sits on the Mediterranean Sea at the bridge between Asia and Europe. Dare I say that Syria is in the center of the world.
Anybody who takes the view that things like the political borders and �??sovereignty�?? of each of the middle east nations determine the boundaries of their rightful concerns and interests is engaging in some kind of fantasy. Where the boundary of Syria ends and Lebanon, Iraq, and Turkey begin on the map reveals nothing about what Syria actually is. The same confusions would apply to many colonially carved �??states�?? of the world.
The reality is that the Palestinians are in Syria. The Iraqis are in Syria. Kurds are in Syria. And Lebanese are in what was Syria. So is some of Turkey. And some Syrians up in the north-east might as well be Turkish. And the Syrians are in Lebanon, and they are sometimes also Lebanese. The Israelis are in Syria! The Iranians are now everywhere in real and in spirit, and might as well be in Syria.
So here is the situation. The borders don�??t matter (as much as people pretend that they are so sacred and that as soon as you �??secure�?� them�?�everything will be alright). What matters is that some very big western powers are engaging in a pretty dangerous cold war with Iran. In fact, this cold war between Iran and the United States has been going on for decades. And at times it wasn�??t even that cold. I refer here to such things in the past as covert coups, poison gases given to the enemy of my enemy, hostage taking, sanctions, and finally, what has come down to some pretty large threats by the United States�?? current psychotic administration to bomb the crap out of Iranian nuclear facilities. Again, it is hard to imagine, given that the targets are nuclear facilities, that the boundary and supposed difference between bombing a bunker or a laboratory and bombing large swaths of the Iranians themselves as they become the �??collateral damage�??, as they say, can be understood as a definably different in reality on the ground. The reality is also that such aggression is likely to unleash -if not WWIII- then at least, a colossal regional conflict.
So, where is Syria on this possible horizon? Again, it would be much preferable that Syria and Syrians be able to concentrate on economic development, improvement of the country�??s infrastructure, and other internal needs. Syria continues to forge positive economic relations with European nations. She is hanging on to such mutually beneficial relations with Spain, Italy, Germany, and Eastern Europe, despite enormous pressure from America to designate Syria as one hundred percent rogue state. But it seems impossible to expect that Syria can fulfill its economic potential when the world hegemonic power is not only lighting fires in the neighboring countries, but most of all, is unwilling to confront Israel and force the Israeli leaders to make concessions necessary for a resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict. I will return to this last point in a moment.
There are those who feel little Syria can at will step out of the regional and world fray and move on with its growth plans, continue to forge mutual economic partnerships with Europe and Turkey, make progress on internal reforms, ignore the Lebanese hatred being hurled at her, and abandon ties with any combustible Lebanese elements, be welcoming to Iraqis, disengage from the Palestinian cause by nixing the Hamas leadership from Damascus, stop the flow of weapons between Iran and Hezballah, talk bad about Iran, and be nice in general as defined by the United States, especially to Israel, and all will be well. Syria might even get the return of the Golan out of such good behavior.
But are these expectations based in any reality that is possible??
Again, I will argue NO. And here is why these scenarios are not possible:
First, did I mention that the borders in the region are fictitious?
Just look at Iraq and Iran at this moment, and one can see how imaginary it is. And the situation there is just getting worse in terms of �??sovereignty�??. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia told a BBC interviewer that the Saudis are planning on constructing a fence between Iraq and SA to keep those �??terrorists�?? from crossing into Saudia Arabia. (Say what?) He smiled wryly at his interviewer when questioned about how long it would take to erect this fence? Mmm�?� er. A long time. I guess, the King thinks that fighting in Iraq is going to go on for quite awhile. But, more significantly, I would like to know what planet is the King living on? He thinks a fence is going to do the job.
A bit ironic when the reality is that a few of the more famous �??terrorists�??, hijackers, and jihadis are�?� well,�?� Saudi Arabian.
For Syria, the reality of her porous borders and literally, tribes, culture, religion, and connected peoples who span across these borders, cannot be wished away. Syria may have a security service that stands guard, somewhat like a fence, but nothing actually separates the connections that cross over the boundaries of states.
Second, Syria cannot be isolationist even if the borders weren�??t in essence fictitious�?� foremost because of her central relevance in the most spotlighted relentless pre-Iraq war conflict going on in the Middle-East. The most significant obstacle to peace in the micro region that concerns Syria is Israel�??s unwillingness to give up land it is occupying. More precisely, it is the inability of the Israeli leadership to confront the elements of Israeli society who are dead set against giving up land. And tied to this stalemate between Israel and Palestine as well as Syria is the unwillingness of the American leadership to apply the enormous pressure required to force the Israeli leadership to force its people make these land concessions. However, without an end to the problems of occupation, there is no chance of peace in Lebanon, no end to the effect of Hamas or some of its leaders hunkering down in Syria, nor an end to the threat of a possible Iranian and Israeli showdown. A resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict is not the end game and not sufficient to bring the entire middle-east fire under control, but it is certainly a necessary component of the cessation of conflict in the region as a whole.
And Syria is in the middle of the swamp of this conflict. To ask Syria to just walk out of the swamp and wash off�?�.is about as realistic as asking the Lebanese to just never mind the Palestinians in Lebanon and make peace with Israel. The point is that Lebanon hasn�??t yet even come close to publicly accepting and announcing that there are hundreds of thousands of Palestinians living in Lebanon who are never going home to Palestine. And the government isn�??t really interested in breaking this news to its citizens and non-citizens. Syria similarly cannot announce to its people a new stance in regards to Hamas or the occupied territories when there has been no final-status resolution accepted by the world that it can point to and say to the Syrian people in essence, �??this is the end of the game�?�.
Third, Syria cannot be out in the cold, all by herself when she is surrounded on all sides by a rising tide of other micro conflicts. Here, I am not yet referring to the WWIII explosion that could occur, but merely the somewhat smaller fires burning nearby. For example, the minor problem of the insane civil war that is raging next door in Iraq. Almost equally troubling, is the potential civil war that threatens in Lebanon as long as the impasse and government shutdown and hatreds continue unabated. Many Lebanese would like the world to believe that this struggle is Syria�??s fault, so if the Syrian security element would simply butt out there would be no problem. But I would argue, more realistically, that the problems in Lebanon are far bigger and more complex than Syrian interference. And this last point directs me to a more central problem both significant in Lebanon and in the larger regional arena: the mysterious and amorphous jihadist groups all over the Middle-East. The potential Fatah-al Islam type movements and other Al-Qaeda inspired cells and militias are an ever-present wild card influence�?�that deepens and darkens the swamp. These elements are far out of the controlling hands of any single government, whether Saudi, or Syrian, or Iraqi. They are not a centrally located threat that can be quarantined or even clearly defined, for that matter. They cannot be blamed on any one source. But certainly, they cannot either be ignored or taken for granted. The relevant point in Syria�??s interest is that current and potential enclaves of people that may fester into violent militias or guerrilla groups surround Syria on all sides, and she can hardly ignore this reality by forming a foreign policy comprised of disengagement and a laissez faire or isolationist attitude.
Finally, without trying to sound apocalyptic, lets face it: the WWIII line up is simply taking shape more and more, and Syria, small as she may be, is right in the middle of it. As usual- the Ottoman descendants will end up on the opposing side of America. However, this time the Iranians are enemy number one of the western powers. The Iranians are trying to take over the territory of Iraq and cleanse it well enough of Sunni non-loyalists that Iran-Iraqistan will be decidedly part of the new Persian �??coalition of the willing.�?� Of course, the USA has in its arsenal the landing and launching pad of Israel, while fighting hard to win over the government of Lebanon so as to neutralize that country from being enemy territory. Still, in the background somewhere are the crazy lands of Afghanistan and Pakistan where�?�. well,�?� we know where the sentiments of the people of these countries lie no matter who the leaders claim to support. Alas, no one can predict the outcome of this potential world war because the new giant economic powers�?� of China and India, and the remaining Soviet influence�?� are not so predictable as to how they will impact the outcome.
But, there is Syria, left out in the cold by the United States, again. Sanctioned to the hilt. Labeled a state sponsor of terror. And what is she supposed to do? Stand on the doorstep outside�?� begging to be let into the club of America?
Meanwhile, the Americans don�??t talk about how many American military bases are continuing to be constructed all over the region. Kuwait is, I believe, one big military base. Then there is Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates. The Americans tried to convince the Turkish government to give them some landing space. Just an airfield, what�??s the big deal? Israel. Might as well be American. Iraq�?�.. well, there is a reason the USA can�??t withdraw for a while. They will be building there for quite a few years to come. And now, if the US can just swing that Lebanese government the right way�?� the military bases will be up and running soon, one only a stone�??s throw from the port of Tartous, just across that fortified fictitious border.
Syria has no choice. She is in a corner. Up against a wall. And she is doing exactly what makes sense, politically speaking, strategically speaking, even internally speaking. Do Syrians feel natural affinity with the Iranians? No. Are the Syrians pals of the Taliban? No, definitely not. Do Syrians have warm sentiments toward those Ottoman descendents? No. Is Syria the one on good terms with the homeland of the hijackers who flew planes into the World Trade Center. No, that would be America. Are the Syrians soul mates of the Iraqis? Well, they certainly are not thrilled about the 1.5 million Iraqi visitors they are currently hosting. And from my personal observations, Syrians do not seem that fond of the Palestinians in their midst or even down south. They just like the cause�?� the righteous cause of the underdog. Syrians love that.
Actually, Syrians like Americans (or they did until quite recently).
Syrians like Europeans, especially Italians (and extra especially Sicilian Mafioso).
Syrians like Egyptians, at least the ones in the movies.
And Syrians would like to be liked by their brothers in Jordan and Lebanon. But unfortunately, there is that family rivalry thing going on where the Syrians get treated like inferior relatives.
Australia and Canada are very happy to import a lot, and I mean A LOT of Syrians to their lands. And so, Syrians are happy to be also Canadians and Australians.
And generally speaking, it should be noted that Syria is not on a terror state watch list in the countries of Africa, Asia, South America, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe or the former Soviet territories.
So is it really Syria�??s fault �?� that somehow she finds herself�?� thrown into the designated Axis of Evil? Is it her fault�?�.that should the lunatics in Washington start another major invasion or, god forbid, a World War that Syria end up on the side of the Turks and the Persians?
As I quoted above, the old wisdom that the enemy of my enemy is my friend�?�. tells the whole story. Hence, Syria finds herself in bed with the regional players who, frankly, will play with her. But, in the end, America is the �??decider�??. America holds the key to these conflicts, should she choose to be so foolhardy to antagonize foreign leaders further, that will transform these mere economic and pragmatic alliances Syria has into battlefield alliances.
In the mean time, Syria goes on her way�?�. progressing slowly through the deep swamp�?� the same swamp that Cheney and company would like to drain to their liking. It is tragic that the �??think-tank�?? zealots in D.C. (who don�??t actually think) continue not to see how Americans will drown in the swamp first before it can ever be cleared.
Thankfully Syria is experienced with swamps�?�having cities that although they have turned to desert, nonetheless, have survived with their people through the rise and fall of empires.
(11 votes, average: 3.09 out of 5)
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