| George Ajjan | Political TV pundit | United States |
Re: ‘If you had the choice what would you change in Syria?’
Despite my origin, I cannot be properly considered a Syrian expatriate, as my ancestors left the city of Aleppo well before the modern entity called the Syrian Arab Republic even came to exist. Nevertheless, from my standpoint the most important step its government can take today is to maximize the opportunity for Syrian expatriates to invest capital in their country of origin. There is nothing so directly actionable that would have a more positive impact on Syria and its neighbors.
Syrian émigrés, with the wealth and success they have achieved in the Diaspora, are their homeland??s greatest natural resource. Beriod. Over the years, many statistics have been bandied about, attempting to quantify just how much money lies in the hands of Syrian expatriates. Figures in the range of $50 billion appear frequently, while numbers as high as $80 billion or even $100 billion have been suggested. But, like most discussions related to the Middle East, ranging from the first price quoted by a merchant in the Hamidiyeh Souq to any ??intelligence? offered by Seymour Hersh, a discount rate of about 90% should be applied.
For example, does the $100 billion figure include the country??s entire gold reserves, a fortune purportedly stolen from the Syrian people by Rifaat Assad as he went into exile? Does it account for the ??contingency? Swiss bank accounts belonging to close relatives of the President? What about the cash skimmed off the top by Syria??s favorite working class hero, Rami Makhlouf?
Despite these anomalies, is it reasonable to assume that $10 billion or so lies in the bank accounts of expatriated Syrian citizens? Absolutely. One can easily imagine the existence of 10,000 Syrians who have gone abroad and become millionaires. 10,000 x $1 million = $10 billion. Even if that capital was repatriated over a 10 year period, it would still make Syria??s rate of Foreign Direct Investment as a percentage of GDP the envy of many developing nations.
Thus, the main focus of the Syrian government should be attracting these funds to be invested internally. Doing so would offer many positive results, not the least of which would be job growth, as investment projects will require the hiring of many individuals for administrative, industrial, and many other types of work. The creation of new businesses, offering enhanced products and services, would also raise the quality of life in Syria. Additionally, the repatriation of Syria??s capital would also improve relations with its western neighbor, who would no longer be oppressed by the stacks of Syrian cash ??occupying? the vaults of Lebanese banks.*** Also, ramped-up expatriate investment would bring not only monetary capital, but also an influx of human capital, offering the Syrian economy the benefit of all the business experience in many industries possessed by the investing expatriates. The transfer of these skills would enhance Syria??s work force even in its existing economy.
The mechanism for repatriating this capital will be a complex one, requiring an ongoing effort to administer, manage, adjudicate, and refine. Fortunately, some infrastructure already exists in the form of a cabinet ministry created exclusively for managing relationships with Syrian expatriates. Bouthaina Shaaban, longtime aide to Hafez Assad as well as his son Bashar, heads this department. Unfortunately, the scope of its work thus far has been limited to listening tours with Syrian citizens living abroad, and the inauguration of an annual expatriates conference.
Such projects barely scratch the surface. Investors do not part with their hard-earned money easily. It will take much more than qualitative feel-good talk shops to achieve real results. Quantitative metrics must be established, making a clear case why Syria is a more attractive investment option than the myriad other choices available. Syria must respect the intelligence and prowess of its native sons and daughters to attract their investment, not just take for granted their natural inclination to return home with their riches. The Expatriates Ministry must tackle this hurdle aggressively and with the utmost professionalism. All of its communication to the target audience of investors needs to completely shred the prevailing image of Syria??s stale and antiquated business climate.
Also, in order to attract Syrian capital, expatriates will need serious assurances. Whatever passes for ??investment laws? in the here-and-now simply won??t cut it. Iron-clad legistlation must be passed to establish a new class of investments, detailing the eligible sectors and industries, as well as the requirements of Syrian ownership. Most critically, the new laws must also protect this new investment class from extraordinary corruption and bakhsheesh. These initiatives need buy-in and commitment from the very top. The President himself must stake his reputation on the success of this program.
Skeptics will scoff at this proposal, cynically believing that the likes of Rami Makhlouf will never relinquish their monopolies. Other idealists will demand that such individuals be punished for their ill-gotten riches and excluded from future economic growth. That just isn??t going to happen. Nor is it wise to advocate ?? if you take away a child??s weekly allowance, he might smash the windows of the house in retaliation. Syria didn??t get into this corrupt oligarchical mess overnight, and it??s not going to get out of it with the wave of a magic wand, either.
The answer may lie in the realization that ROI, even in inefficient markets like Syria, need not be a zero-sum game. Perhaps now, Rami Makhlouf puts in $1 and earns $2, while someone else puts in $1 and loses it all. The goal should be something like this: Rami Makhlouf puts in $1, a group of investors puts in $1, and each takes out $1.50. Thus, part of the plan to attract capital might include a $1 billion fund (for starters) set up by Mr. Makhlouf, pledged to match funds from expatriates who invest ?? with a progressive match rate proportional to the amount of capital repatriated.
The Syrian Arab Republic is no one??s family farm. Everyone recognizes the unhealthy and disproportionate share of the country??s riches taken by a select few, an imbalance which Syria can begin to rectify by bringing home the financial and human capital of native Syrians. Most importantly, the repatriation of capital will make vast strides toward job growth, a stronger economy, enhanced trade, and a higher quality of life.
George Ajjan is a Republican activist and a member of the Arab American Institute’s National Policy Council. He is the creator of syriapol, a Syrian Democracy project that polls Syrian public opinion using conjoint analysis.
*** Learn to laugh, you??ll live longer.
(8 votes, average: 4.88 out of 5)
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